Israel
Senior Israeli officials have issued a stark warning about the potential consequences of anti-government protests in Iran, even as the country continues to publicly encourage such demonstrations. According to a US State Department cable reviewed by The Washington Post, Israeli leaders fear that Iranian citizens who take to the streets could face brutal retaliation from state forces.
The cable, sent by the US Embassy in Jerusalem, reveals that Israeli officials privately told American diplomats that protesters could be “slaughtered” if large-scale unrest erupts. This concern comes amid ongoing tensions and conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran.
Despite these grim assessments, Israel has continued to signal support for public dissent within Iran. Officials reportedly urged Washington to be prepared to back demonstrators if protests escalate and face violent crackdowns. The discussions involved representatives from Israel’s National Security Council, Ministry of Defence, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, highlighting the seriousness of the situation.
The developments coincide with renewed calls for protests by Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s exiled crown prince. He has encouraged citizens to mobilize during Chaharshanbe Suri, a traditional Persian festival that has historically seen public gatherings and, at times, political expression.
Publicly, Israel maintains that its primary objective is to weaken Iran’s military and leadership structures rather than directly intervene in domestic uprisings. In a statement, the Israeli Embassy in Washington emphasized that its focus remains on eliminating what it describes as the regime’s military threat, asserting that such actions ultimately benefit regional stability.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly voiced support for regime change in Iran. In a televised address earlier in the conflict, he stated that Israel would “strike hard” against what he called a “terror regime,” while creating conditions for Iranian citizens to challenge their leadership.
On the American side, Donald Trump initially took a strong stance, urging Iranians to rise against their government. However, his tone later shifted as he acknowledged the severe risks faced by protesters. In an interview, Trump pointed out that Iranian security forces have previously used lethal force, including firearms, against unarmed demonstrators—making any uprising highly dangerous.
A White House official also noted that while the US remains critical of Iran’s leadership, it is no longer actively pursuing regime change as a direct policy objective. Instead, Washington appears to be reassessing its approach amid the complex realities on the ground.
The cable further highlights that Israeli officials may have underestimated the resilience of Iran’s leadership. Despite heavy strikes and reports of the killing of Ali Khamenei, the regime is described as “not cracking” and remains capable of sustained military operations. Iranian forces have reportedly continued launching missiles and drones, demonstrating operational strength.
Even reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, believed to be a key successor figure, was injured in an airstrike have not significantly altered the power structure. Israeli officials reportedly believe he remains in control and aligned with hardline factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Ultimately, Israeli officials concluded that while external pressure may weaken Iran, any lasting political change would likely have to come from within. However, the risks associated with such internal upheaval remain severe, with ordinary citizens potentially paying the highest price.
As tensions continue to escalate, the situation underscores a stark contradiction: public encouragement for protests on one hand, and private warnings of a potential bloodbath on the other.
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